Moving out of town for more space and a less frenetic pace of life has been one of the most consistent trends of the London property market this century.
But, in 2024, there was an abrupt shift. During the year, Londoners bought just 5.7% of homes outside the M25 area, down from 7.8% in 2023 and 8.2% in 2022. This was the lowest total of such deals since 2013.
The number of properties purchased - 57,020 - was 45% below the peak of the pandemic 'race for space' in 2021. During that time, buyers turned their backs on London in search of houses with more space and larger gardens in rural locations or commuter towns.
The 2024 total was also 19% lower than the pre-Covid average between 2015 and 2019 when, typically, Londoners acquired 70,060 homes a year outside the capital.
The drop in migration from the capital was largely caused by the return to the office, relatively high mortgage rates, and weaker house price growth. Over the past decade, the average price of a home outside London has leapt by 39%, compared with growth of 26% in London.
Some London neighbourhoods have seen a decline in property values, reducing homeowners' equity and so their ability to quit the capital. It should also be said that people are, in general, moving home less often in all regions.
One cohort is still leaving the bright lights behind, however. A record 31% of those who bought a place outside the capital in 2024 were first-time buyers. They snapped up 17,680 homes, a figure that has more than doubled since 2013.
Many of those who climbed onto the first rung of the ladder were escaping from the capital's rental market. Lower mortgage rates mean that it is cheaper to buy than rent, although the salary and the deposit required for a London home tend to make it difficult to remain there.
Affordability is driving first-time buyers and others farther out of town. The average person leaving London moved a record 33.1 miles in 2024 which was 19% above the pre-Covid average of 27.8 miles.
"One cohort is still leaving the bright lights behind, however. A record 31% of those who bought a place outside the capital in 2024 were first-time buyers. "
But there are differences in preferences. First-time buyers do not venture so far, choosing a location that is, on average, 25.5 miles from London, slightly closer than the 2023 average of 26.3 miles.
Londoners with a home to sell relocated to an area that is 45.4 miles distant from their previous home in the capital, 13.7 miles farther out than during the pre-Covid era. Going these extra miles often puts their trophy home within reach.
The areas that have seen the biggest rise in the share of buyers who left the capital since 2019 are located in the South East or East of England. They off er a mix of affordability and good transport links. Top of the league is Brentwood, Essex, where Londoners bought 47% of the homes sold in 2024, up from 23% in 2019. Rushmoor in Hampshire, Colchester (Essex) and Epsom & Ewell (Surrey) follow.
Wychavon, in the West Midlands, which takes in Evesham, Droitwich, and some sections of the Cotswolds is the first local authority outside the South of England that’s seen the biggest rise in London buyers and sits in thirteenth place. Here, London buyers acquired 11% of homes sold in 2024 against 3% in 2019.
In twenty-fourth place sits Blackpool. Londoners acquired 9% of the properties sold in the Lancashire coastal resort last year, up from 4% in 2019. But most were investors drawn by the average gross yield on a buy-to-let of 10.1%, almost double the 5.7% return available in London.
We expect more outward migration from London in 2025 as the capital's property market revives and the cost of mortgages edges down. These conditions could even encourage homeowners who have stayed put for a decade to feel that they have sufficient equity to consider relocating.
But, while mortgages are set to become slightly cheaper, they will still remain above historic levels, with the result that these households will continue to look beyond the Home Counties for their dream home.