Foreword by Aneisha Beveridge, Head of Research

Events on the global stage are shifting at pace. From geopolitical tensions to volatile financial and energy markets, the backdrop against which households make big financial decisions changes daily. At times, it feels hard enough to keep up – let alone assess what all of this means for the UK housing market.

Against that backdrop, the resilience of the March market has been quietly encouraging, with sales up year-on-year. There was a sense earlier in the year that confidence was returning as spring approached, helped by improved affordability and a window of relative calm in mortgage pricing.

While late-March rate rises resulting from the conflict in Iran created fresh uncertainty, this is not unfamiliar territory. Mortgage costs have, broadly speaking, returned to where they sat around this time last year – a reminder that the market can function at these levels.

Activity through the month suggests that many buyers and sellers were still prepared to move. The market may not be charging ahead, but nor has it stalled at the first sign of renewed headwinds. Since then, events have again moved quickly. At the time of writing, the announcement of a ceasefire has brought a more optimistic tone, with financial markets reacting swiftly. If the ceasefire holds, we could see mortgage rates drift back down again, albeit probably not to the lows reached earlier in the year. As ever, confidence is highly sensitive to the global backdrop, and any improvement still feels fragile.

One of the more striking features of the current landscape is how swiftly the conversation has shifted. For much of 2024, and particularly under the long shadow of the Autumn Budget, tax changes dominated headlines and decision-making. Those issues haven’t gone away, but in recent weeks they have been nudged aside by more immediate concerns around borrowing costs, inflation and global risk. Even the newly announced mansion tax has been largely overshadowed by the fluctuating cost of fi nance faced across the market.

In uncertain times, housing decisions rarely feel straightforward. But if March showed anything, it is that the market remains adaptable – even as the ground continues to shift beneath it.