The landscape of off-plan property sales across England and Wales has changed, with the North West emerging as the new epicentre for off-plan flat sales. For the first time since 2007, a region has surpassed London in the proportion of new-build flats sold before construction completion, reflecting a shift in investor behaviour and market dynamics.
The latest research from our annual off-plan sales index reveals that 63% of new-build flats in the North West were sold off-plan in 2024, overtaking London, where the figure stood at 55%. While London's crown has slipped, it hasn't fallen off. After the North West, there are still more off-plan sales in the capital than anywhere else in the country.
Salford has emerged as the hotspot, with 80% of new flats sold off-plan last year – the highest proportion in any local authority across the country. Liverpool follows closely behind at 75%, demonstrating the strong appeal of these northern urban centres to investors in particular, who are a key source of demand for off-plan sales.
The Changing Geography of Off-Plan Investment
Most regions have seen 10-20% falls in the share of new homes (flats and houses) sold off-plan since 2016. London has recorded a 29% fall in the proportion of new homes sold off plan. In the capital, the share of new homes sold before they’re built has fallen from 66% in 2016 to 37% in 2024. However, off-plan sales have held up better in Northern areas.
The geographical shift in off-plan sales reflects broader economic trends and regional house price performance. Northern cities have benefited from stronger price growth since 2016, making them increasingly attractive to investors looking to secure properties at today's prices for developments that may not complete for several years.
This contrasts with London's experience, where sluggish house price growth has dampened investor enthusiasm for locking in purchases far in advance. The expectation that prices will be higher upon completion – a fundamental driver of off-plan investment – remains stronger in northern regions than in the capital.
Beyond Salford and Liverpool, several other northern locations have emerged as off-plan hotspots, with Bradford (65%), Selby (64%), Derby (64%), Doncaster (60%), Rochdale (58%) and Gateshead (53%) all seeing more than half of new flats sold before completion. This represents a significant change from 2016, when London boroughs dominated the top rankings.
National Decline in Off-Plan Sales
Despite the North West's strong performance, the overall picture for off-plan sales nationally shows a downward trend. In 2024, just 31% of all new homes (both houses and flats) across England and Wales were sold off-plan – the lowest proportion since 2012 and a significant decrease from the peak of 49% in 2016.
Flats, which have traditionally been the bellwether of the off-plan market, have seen the most pronounced decline. The proportion of flats sold before completion has fallen from 73% in 2016 to 50% in 2024. Houses, which are more commonly purchased by owner-occupiers rather than investors, have seen a more modest decrease from 35% to 26% over the same period.
This national fall reflects several factors: weaker investor confidence both from home and abroad, concerns about developer reliability in some cases, and crucially, the reduced financial incentive during a period of slower price growth. When property values are rising rapidly, as they were in London post-2008 financial crisis, locking in today's price for a completion further down the line offers clear advantages. In a flatter market, this benefit diminishes.
Impact of Policy Changes
The policy landscape has also played a crucial role in reshaping off-plan sales patterns. November 2024's increase in the stamp duty surcharge on second homes from 3% to 5% has suppressed investor activity, with potential long-term implications for housing supply.
The higher stamp duty surcharge has kept a cap on the number of investor purchases being agreed today, which will almost certainly mean fewer homes being built tomorrow. While institutional investors have stepped in with bulk purchase deals in some cases, these haven't fully replaced the demand previously provided by smaller landlords. This gap in funding could potentially constrain housing delivery in the coming years, particularly in regions where off-plan sales have declined most sharply.
