The rate of London outmigration has slowed to its lowest level in more than a decade, but the bigger change is how far people are moving. After years of long-distance relocations driven by the search for space and value, 2025 marks a shift. The Home Counties have regained ground and regional patterns show more London leavers are staying closer to the capital.
Our analysis shows that in 2025, Londoners purchased 5.6% of homes sold outside the capital, down from 5.7% in 2024 and far below the 8.2% recorded in 2022 at the height of the pandemic when buyers moved for space.
While the share has fallen, the number of homes bought outside the capital by a Londoner rose slightly year-on-year to 57,660, reflecting higher overall transaction volumes. Even so, London outmigration levels remain significantly below the 2021 peak of 103,310 and notably lower than the 2015–2019 pre-Covid average of c.70,000 per year.
What’s changed is how far people are willing to go. The average mover traded a London home for one 71.6 miles away, 10 miles less than last year and back to 2021 levels. First-time buyers moved 52.3 miles on average, down from 54.8 miles in 2023 when mortgage rates peaked. In total, 54% of London leavers stayed within 50 miles of the capital, up from 47% in 2024, reinforcing a clear pattern of staying closer as financial conditions improve.
The shift toward shorter moves has put the spotlight back on the traditional commuter belt, where demand from London buyers is climbing again. After several years of being overlooked in favour of more affordable areas further afield, the traditional commuter belt is back on the map.
In 2025, 18.2% of homes sold in the Home Counties were bought by a Londoner, the highest share since 2017. The figure is up from 15.4% in 2024 and more than 7 percentage points higher than the pandemic low of 11.1% in 2022, when buyers moved further into the South West, Midlands and North in search of space and value.
Today, improved affordability - driven by falling mortgage rates and less stringent affordability tests - means more households can stay closer to the capital. The return to office-based working has reinforced this shift, making locations such as Surrey, Hertfordshire and Buckinghamshire attractive for those seeking a balance of lifestyle and connectivity.
In 2025, 68% of London leavers stayed in the South of England (South East, South West or East of England) - the highest proportion since 2021 and up from 62% in 2024. This marks a reversal of both pandemic and affordability-led trends that pushed buyers further into the Midlands and North.
The South East has been the biggest beneficiary, accounting for a third of London leavers this year - up 4 percentage points on 2024 and the biggest increase of any region. In contrast, the North West, West Midlands and Scotland recorded falls in the share of Londoners heading there.
Staying closer to London is visible at a local level too, with a rise in popularity for destinations around the M25. Chigwell in the East of England tops the list, where the share of buyers from London rose by 35 percentage points year-on-year to 53%.
Other areas showing strong growth include Chatham, Caterham, and Fryerns in Basildon, alongside prime spots such as Esher and Gillingham, which had been overlooked in recent years in favour of more affordable areas further afield.
After years of steadily increasing their share, first-time buyers as a proportion of London leavers slipped for the first time since 2019. They accounted for 31% of purchases outside the capital, down slightly from 31.5% last year.
A decade ago, that figure was just 19%, underlining the longer-term affordability pressures that once pushed aspiring homeowners further afield. Falling mortgage rates and less stringent affordability tests have reversed that trend, keeping more first-time buyers in London. On average, they spent £298,360 on their first home outside of London, £13,450 more than last year.
By contrast, movers - those selling a home in London - now make up a larger share of leavers, rising to 42.5% from 39.8% last year. Despite a subdued London market, households with equity have been able to move as borrowing costs eased. On average, movers spent £457,480 on their new home outside the capital, almost £98,000 more than in 2024, reflecting the boost to purchasing power from lower mortgage rates.
Meanwhile, investor and second-home purchases have softened, slipping to a combined total of 26.5% from 28.8% last year. This reflects a more cautious stance toward tax and regulatory changes.
Looking ahead, affordability will remain the key driver of London outmigration. If borrowing costs continue to fall, we expect more households to stay in the capital or move shorter distances. The strength of the London market will also play a big role - but with prices unlikely to rise significantly in the coming years, equity gains will remain limited. That means aspiration for a large country manor will be tempered by economics for some time yet.
