Figures from the first full month following the election show that a change of government hasn’t drastically altered the direction of the market. While the election wasn’t a dealbreaker for most movers, more clarity about the political and economic future has motivated some sellers to come to the market.
The new government’s honeymoon period has encouraged a modest pickup in activity across the housing market as a whole, but not a significant bounce. Most of the uplift has been in the North of England, while buyers and sellers in the South remain more tentative. Rather, last week’s rate cut will likely prove a sweetener, enabling more movers, but we don’t expect a significant uplift in prices.
However, on the back of a post-election feel-good factor, those living in seats that leaned left have been increasingly likely to put their homes on the market. The decision to move home tends to be driven by how people feel about their own finances as well as the direction of the country in general.
While the number of seats held by smaller parties is relatively low, proportionately, they saw the largest increase in homeowners coming onto the market. Areas in Independently held seats recorded a 60% increase in new instructions compared to the same period in 2023, while the number of new homes being marketed in the nine seats held by the Greens and Reform UK rose by 34%.
The uplift in homeowners deciding to sell has been largest in areas where seats changed colour. Parliamentary seats that changed hands saw a 17% uplift in the number of homes coming onto the market compared to the same time last year, while seats that didn’t recorded a 7% increase. Seats which remained red recorded an 8% uplift, while seats that stayed blue saw a 1% fall.
While less political uncertainty has helped more people commit to purchases, falling mortgage rates over the month have been the main driver. Homes in the North of England, which generally sell quicker, have seen the biggest uplift. Here, 30% of homes that came onto the market in the first half of July found a buyer within two weeks, 14% more than the same period in 2023.
In the four Southern regions (London, East of England, South East and South West), 18% of homes sold within two weeks, up from 13% last year. Here, the pace of the market remains a little slower than the 2015-19 average, while in the rest of the country, homes are likely to sell more quickly than pre-Covid.
Sellers increasingly believe that future prices are more likely to rise rather than fall, making them less amenable to accepting a lower offer. Of the homes that came onto the market post-election and sold in the same month, sellers in England & Wales achieved an average of 100.7% of their asking price. This represents an uplift compared to the 99.4% overall average achieved by all sellers in July, regardless of when their home came onto the market. Overall, sellers in July achieved an average of 99.4% of their final asking price, representing the highest proportion since September 2022 (100.2%), just before mortgage rates spiked the following month.
Sellers in the South of England have proved most open to negotiation, where vendors achieved 99.1% of their asking price on average last month. While across the Midlands (99.9%) and the North (99.6%), sellers have generally been able to hold out for a higher proportion of the asking price.
Larger homes have driven the fall in price reductions as lower mortgage rates have begun to encourage more upsizers into the market. Forty-eight percent of homes across England & Wales with four bedrooms or more sold last month after a price cut, down 8% compared to the same time last year. Meanwhile one-bed homes are equally as likely to sell after a price reduction as they were in July 2023.
The new government’s honeymoon period has encouraged a modest pickup in activity across the housing market as a whole, but not a significant bounce. Most of the uplift has been in the North of England, while buyers and sellers in the South remain more tentative. Rather, last week’s rate cut will likely prove a sweetener, enabling more movers, but we don’t expect a significant uplift in prices.
However, on the back of a post-election feel-good factor, those living in seats that leaned left have been increasingly likely to put their homes on the market. The decision to move home tends to be driven by how people feel about their own finances as well as the direction of the country in general.
NEW INSTRUCTIONS
In the first full month following the general election, homeowners in Labour and Lib Dem held seats have been increasingly likely to put their homes on the market. While the number of new instructions across Great Britain increased by 13% compared to the same period in 2023, the number of homes coming onto the market in Lib Dem-held seats rose by 17% and Labour-held seats by 12%. Conversely, the number of homes coming onto the market in seats still held by the Conservatives fell by 2%.While the number of seats held by smaller parties is relatively low, proportionately, they saw the largest increase in homeowners coming onto the market. Areas in Independently held seats recorded a 60% increase in new instructions compared to the same period in 2023, while the number of new homes being marketed in the nine seats held by the Greens and Reform UK rose by 34%.
The uplift in homeowners deciding to sell has been largest in areas where seats changed colour. Parliamentary seats that changed hands saw a 17% uplift in the number of homes coming onto the market compared to the same time last year, while seats that didn’t recorded a 7% increase. Seats which remained red recorded an 8% uplift, while seats that stayed blue saw a 1% fall.
HOMES SELLING WITHIN 2 WEEKS
Since the election, homes have been selling more quickly. Just under a quarter (24%) of homes that came onto the market across Great Britain in the first half of July went under offer within two weeks. This is up from 15% during the same period in 2023 and up from 19% in the period leading up to the election this year (Jan 2024-Jun 2024).While less political uncertainty has helped more people commit to purchases, falling mortgage rates over the month have been the main driver. Homes in the North of England, which generally sell quicker, have seen the biggest uplift. Here, 30% of homes that came onto the market in the first half of July found a buyer within two weeks, 14% more than the same period in 2023.
In the four Southern regions (London, East of England, South East and South West), 18% of homes sold within two weeks, up from 13% last year. Here, the pace of the market remains a little slower than the 2015-19 average, while in the rest of the country, homes are likely to sell more quickly than pre-Covid.
ACHIEVED PRICES
The share of sellers accepting big discounts from their asking price has fallen to the lowest level since mortgage rates spiked at the end of 2022. Just 2.2% of sellers in England & Wales accepted an offer which was more than 10% below their final asking price in July, down from a peak of 5.1% in December 2022.Sellers increasingly believe that future prices are more likely to rise rather than fall, making them less amenable to accepting a lower offer. Of the homes that came onto the market post-election and sold in the same month, sellers in England & Wales achieved an average of 100.7% of their asking price. This represents an uplift compared to the 99.4% overall average achieved by all sellers in July, regardless of when their home came onto the market. Overall, sellers in July achieved an average of 99.4% of their final asking price, representing the highest proportion since September 2022 (100.2%), just before mortgage rates spiked the following month.
Sellers in the South of England have proved most open to negotiation, where vendors achieved 99.1% of their asking price on average last month. While across the Midlands (99.9%) and the North (99.6%), sellers have generally been able to hold out for a higher proportion of the asking price.
PRICE REDUCTIONS
House prices returning to growth and lower mortgage rates have meant that fewer sellers are having to reduce their asking price. Forty-six percent of homes sold across England & Wales in July had undergone a price reduction, slightly down from 47% in June 2024 and 56% in October 2023 when price reductions peaked.Larger homes have driven the fall in price reductions as lower mortgage rates have begun to encourage more upsizers into the market. Forty-eight percent of homes across England & Wales with four bedrooms or more sold last month after a price cut, down 8% compared to the same time last year. Meanwhile one-bed homes are equally as likely to sell after a price reduction as they were in July 2023.
