The 2024 general election saw a significant shift in voting patterns across England and Wales, with housing tenure an increasingly important determinant of how people voted. Our analysis of the preliminary voting results, published by the House of Commons, reveals how Labour's landslide victory was driven by gains in areas dominated by mortgaged households, while the Conservatives lost ground across all tenure types.
Labour's Surge Among Mortgage-Holders
Labour's most significant gains came in constituencies where mortgaged households dominate. The party gained an impressive 165% (51) more seats in these areas.
Mortgage holders have faced a tricky time over the last few years. These households have been particularly affected by the cost of living crisis and rising mortgage rates over the past two years, even as headline inflation has dropped back, which likely influenced their voting decisions.
Outright Owners Lean Towards Smaller Parties
Interestingly, outright owners, the largest tenure across Great Britain since 2013, were more inclined to switch to smaller parties than to Labour. Although Labour still gained the most seats on a net basis from mortgage-free households (+123 seats), other smaller parties saw the biggest percentage increase at 613%.
This group of more affluent, older homeowners, potentially concerned about potential capital gains and inheritance tax hikes, appeared reluctant to shift their voting habits from one end of the political spectrum to the other.
Renters Abandon the Tories
The Conservatives suffered a complete loss of seats in areas where renters, both social and private, dominate. These tenures have been hit hard by soaring rental growth and the broader cost-of-living crisis, and are often located in Labour heartlands. From an already very low base, the Tories lost 3 seats in social housing-dominated areas and 8 seats in private renter-dominated constituencies.
Renters across the country faced record breaking rental growth in 2023. And while the pace of rental growth has softened so far this year, rents are still rising nearly three times faster than inflation, putting further pressure on household budgets.
Labour’s gains here reflect voters who perhaps lent their vote to the Tories in 2019 moving leftwards. Additionally Labour’s ambition to give tenants more security and flexibility in their homes by banning no-fault evictions, allowing tenants to have pets and forcing landlords to investigate reported hazards within 14 days may have captured some tenant's attention.
Labour's Homeownership Challenge
Despite Labour's resounding victory, our analysis suggests that the party still has work to do to win over large numbers of more affluent homeowners, many of whom are older generations without a mortgage. While Labour set out plans to help their core voter base become homeowners by boosting housebuilding and extending the mortgage guarantee scheme, the success of these ambitions will, in the short term, largely depend on interest rates rather than policy.
As the dust settles on the 2024 general election, it is clear that housing tenure played a significant role in shaping the outcome. Labour's ability to capitalize on the concerns of mortgaged households and renters proved decisive, while the Conservatives' loss of support across tenures which typically lean in their directon highlights the challenges they face in rebuilding their voter base.
