The South East has the country’s lowest furlough take-up rate. It should also benefit the most from the rise in Londoners leaving the city. We expect growth of 5.0% between now and 2024. The East of England has the second lowest furlough take-up rate and better affordability than the South East. As a result, we expect prices to rise by 6.0% over the next four years. By contrast, the South West has the highest furlough rate and its economy has been hard hit. We expect its market to underperform in 2020 and 2021. But this region’s affordability should help it achieve 6.5% growth by 2024.
The pandemic has taken its toll on the Midlands which rely on manufacturing. We forecast that the East Midlands and the West Midlands will remain flat this year, and that these regions will be the weakest performers over the next four years, with growth of 5.5% and 4.5% respectively.
We forecast Northern regions to lead the price league over the next four years. By 2024, we expect prices in the North East - the most affordable region - to have risen by 11.5%. The North West should also prosper. We forecast that prices in this region will grow
by 10.5% by 2024. Also moving upwards should be Yorkshire and the Humber, thanks to a competitive labour market. We forecast 10.5% growth by 2024.
WALES & SCOTLAND
Wales has the lowest unemploymentrate - and a low take-up of the furlough scheme. As a result, we expect house prices to rise 3.0% this year, with 10.5% growth by 2024. Scotland is the second most affordable region: prices have risen 19% over the last decade, against 53% in London. As a result, we forecast that prices will increase by 10.0% over the next four years.