The Crossrail Effect: Growth in Activity Levels Within a Mile of Crossrail Stations Almost Double London Averages in 2013
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Transactions within 500 metres of Crossrail stations grew by 23 per cent in 2013 and within a mile by 21 per cent, significantly exceeding the London average of 13 per cent, according to new research from Hamptons International.

The research report analysed activity and prices along all stations on the Crossrail line to identify its current and projected impact on local housing markets.

The research revealed that 2013 marked a turning point in housing market activity in close proximity to London’s Crossrail stations with transaction growth accelerating well beyond London averages for the first time since construction began.  By contrast, since 2009, transaction growth has been closer to London averages, with transactions within 500 metres of Crossrail stations growing by 54 per cent and within a mile by 44 per cent compared with a 52 per cent increase in transactions across London generally over the last five years. 

 

Within 500 metres of Crossrail

Within 1 mile of Crossrail

Regional average

Overall

 

 

London average

Transaction growth in 2013

23%

21%

13%

Transaction growth since 2009

54%

44%

52%

House price growth in 2013

9%

10%

11%

House price growth since 2009

27%

34%

26%

West London

 

 

W.London average

Transaction growth in 2013

36%

23%

12%

Transaction growth since 2009

63%

41%

53%

House price growth in 2013

1%

6%

7%

House price growth since 2009

20%

23%

20%

East London

 

 

E.London average

Transaction growth in 2013

30%

27%

18%

Transaction growth since 2009

58%

46%

55%

House price growth in 2013

9%

5%

7%

House price growth since 2009

10%

13%

13%

Central London

 

 

C.London average

Transaction growth in 2013

7%

11%

12%

Transaction growth since 2009

12%

27%

46%

House price growth in 2013

16%

15%

12%

House price growth since 2009

44%

56%

46%


Johnny Morris, Head of Research at Hamptons International
, commented: “The broader recovery of London’s housing market in 2013 has proved fertile ground for a Crossrail effect to emerge. Housing market activity in anticipation of Crossrail has spread to most stations along the line and nearly one in 10 home sales in 2013 were within a mile of a Crossrail Station.

“However while many markets are seeing a hive of Crossrail activity, the muted price growth around some stations indicates there are still many opportunities for savvy investors. Stations to the East and West of Central London, in line for radical improvement to commuting times, are best positioned to benefit from the Crossrail effect.

“Many East London markets experienced a Crossrail effect for the first time in 2013 but for stations further along the line, growth has been limited to the areas closest to the stations. In West London, the higher value markets of Acton and Ealing have already seen a large impact from Crossrail but the effects of the project are steadily spreading across the line. For example, Maidenhead, the last stop on the route, is starting to see more purchaser activity buoyed by Crossrail.”

Crossrail hotspots

Crossrail effect areas in Zones Two and Three in London, which will see commuting times fall to under 20 minutes, have seen the most impressive increases in transactions: within 500 metres the number of transactions has increased by 116 per cent since 2009 compared with a London average of 52 per cent. By contrast, price growth in these areas has risen just 17 per cent compared with the London average of 26 percent.

Zones Two and Three With Time to Tottenham Court Road Falling to Under 20 Minutes

Station

Pre-Crossrail Time to TCR

Post-Crossrail Time to TCR

Transaction Increase Since 2009 Within 500m

Price Growth Since 2009 Within 500m

Acton Main Line

38

11

188%

12%

Canary Wharf

20

11

140%

6%

Custom House

30

15

157%

0%

Ealing Broadway

25

14

169%

48%

Forest Gate

29

18

62%

19%

Hanwell

44

15

71%

30%

Maryland

27

16

122%

21%

Southall

47

20

-33%

24%

Stratford

18

14

284%

43%

West Ealing

33

16

111%

13%

Whitechapel

19

8

105%

6%

Woolwich

37

19

413%

6%


While Zones Two and Three have seen the largest growth in housing market transactions so far, Crossrail will substantially cut journey times from a number of stations within Zones 6 & 7 on the edge of London, firmly cementing them as commutable locations.  While transactions have grown in these areas the effect has been so far limited to within 500m of stations.

Johnny Morris concluded: “A drop in journey times to Central London to 20 minutes or less is a really big market driver.  It’s these markets that stand to see some of the biggest impact from Crossrail in the short term.”

Residential Development Market

Crossrail has had a similarly significant impact on the residential development market, particularly in Central London, which is home to two thirds of new homes sales along the Crossrail route.  Since 2009, one in five new homes sales in London was within a mile of a Crossrail station.  Canary Wharf in particular has seen almost 2,000 new homes sales within a mile of the station, accounting for a quarter of all new homes built along the route so far.  There will be a Crossrail ripple effect on the new homes market too with confirmed schemes in Woolwich, Maidenhead, Ealing and Southall.

Nick Vaughan, Head of Residential Development and Investment, commented: “Crossrail has already stimulated much investment in new homes along the lines, unlocking previously unviable schemes and driving regeneration in new areas.  Over the long term, the areas that stand to gain most are those that have complemented the new Crossrail link with regeneration and development.”

For media enquiries please contact:
Aisling Gray, Senior PR Manager, Hamptons International
020 7758 8422 / 07786 118634 / graya@hamptons-int.com

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